Inconsistent definitions of national net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emission targets hinder effective land use and food policy. This study analyzes 3000 randomized scenarios of Irish agricultural production and land use combinations using ten NZ definitions, revealing a 1–85% success rate depending on the definition. Common actions across definitions include afforestation, organic soil rewetting, and cattle destocking. Ambitious emission abatement moderates, but doesn't replace, these actions. Achieving NZ requires significant land sector transformation in Ireland, necessitating a vision for future land use that supports a sustainable food system and circular bioeconomy. International consensus on methane emission accounting in NZ targets is urgently needed.

George Bishop, Colm Duffy, Rémi Prudhomme, Annette Cowie, Cathal O'Donoghue, Michelle Cain, Gary J. Lanigan, David Styles