Coupled social and land use dynamics affect dietary choice and agricultural land-use extent

Dietary patterns have long been a driver of global land use, and increasingly respond to it due to social processes supporting eco-conscious diets. This research develops a coupled social-and-land use mathematical model parameterized for 153 countries to project global land use, considering future population, income, and agricultural yield. The model reveals that coupled feedbacks can alter peak global land use for agriculture by up to 2 billion hectares, depending on parameters. Social dynamics increase eco-conscious dietary behavior until mid-21st century, then decline in response to decreasing land use from a shrinking global population. Synergistic effects between socio-economic parameters are also observed, highlighting the importance of including coupled social-and-land feedbacks in land use projections.

Saptarshi Pal, Chris T. Bauch, Madhur Anand