Connecting Climate Change Mitigation to Global Land Regeneration, Doubling Worldwide Livestock, and Reduction of Early Deaths from Noncommunicable Diseases

Aim and background: This article links early deaths from diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), low animal-sourced food intake (especially in developing countries), regenerative/organic agriculture, global food security, and climate change mitigation. Modeling Global Burden of Disease (GBD) risk factor and outcome data revealed higher early NCD deaths in cohorts with low consumption of animal-sourced foods; lower NCD rates were associated with higher animal food consumption. This prompted exploration of climate implications. Methods: The study critiques IPCC definitions of sustainable land management, sustainable intensification, climate-smart agriculture, and the sustainability-focused shared socioeconomic pathway 1 (SSP1), then models a scenario doubling global livestock alongside global regenerative/organic agriculture, using IPCC mean 2010–2019 anthropogenic GHGs as baseline. Results: IPCC land-related definitions are characterized as aspirational and lacking methodological specificity; they differ from common literature usage. Status quo net global AFOLU GHGs (2010–2019) are 11.9 ± 4.4 GT CO2-eq/yr. IPCC’s SSP1 reduces GHGs to 3 GT CO2-eq/yr by 2050. A modeled transition to regenerative/organic agriculture across ~5 billion ha and doubling global livestock yields net global GHGs ≈ −24.1 GT CO2-eq/yr over 2–3 decades, totaling −482 to −723 GT CO2-eq sequestered. Conclusions: Doubling global livestock combined with regenerative/organic agriculture could mitigate climate change more than SSP1 while improving food security and reversing land degradation. Transitioning away from intensive industrial agriculture would require initial financial and labor support globally, potentially via worker-owned cooperatives; thereafter farms could be self-sustaining through food sales.

David K Cundiff, David K Cundiff