Warm-water coral reefs are currently limited to tropical and subtropical latitudes. This study investigates the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping coral reef distribution over geological timescales using habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling, and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. Results indicate a broader latitudinal distribution of suitable habitat persisted during the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to a wider tropical belt and more even distribution of shallow marine substrate. From the late Paleogene, suitable habitat became increasingly concentrated in the tropics due to global cooling and increased tropical shallow marine substrate from Indo-Australian Archipelago tectonic evolution. While global warming might allow future poleward expansion, coral reefs are unlikely to adapt to the rapid pace of anthropogenic climate change.

Lewis A. Jones, Philip D. Mannion, Alexander Farnsworth, Fran Bragg, Daniel J. Lunt