February 2020 saw anomalously warm temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula, culminating in one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded in Western Antarctica. The event showed unprecedented regional mean temperature anomalies (+4.5 °C) and the highest local temperature in the continental Antarctic region. Using flow analogs from ERA5 reanalysis data, the study quantifies climate change's role in the heatwave's magnitude. Results indicate that 2020-like heatwaves are now at least 0.4 °C warmer than in the past, representing a 25% increase. The probability of such events has increased tenfold since 1950–1984. The increased severity is primarily attributed to long-term summer warming rather than recent atmospheric circulation trends.

Sergi González-Herrero, David Barriopedro, Ricardo M. Trigo, Joan Albert López-Bustins, Marc Oliva