Climate change is causing species redistribution, potentially leading to ecosystem collapse. This study examines a catastrophic phase shift in kelp ecosystems due to the range extension of an overgrazing sea urchin (*Centrostephanus rodgersii*) in southeastern Australia. Early-warning signals, termed ‘incipient barrens,’ were detected well before collapse, showing poleward progression over 15 years. Projections indicate half of all kelp beds in the affected region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was linked to deep boulder reefs and negatively associated with fished predatory lobsters and abalone. Equatorward observations provide a space-for-time substitution to detect early warnings, enabling proactive climate adaptation measures.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Jan 09, 2024
Authors
Scott D. Ling, John P. Keane
Tags
climate change
kelp ecosystems
species redistribution
overgrazing
sea urchins
boulder reefs
early-warning signals
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