Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

This study investigates how climate change will affect the predictability of seasonal precipitation using CMIP6 models. The analysis shows that climate change will alter the sea surface temperature (SST)-precipitation relationships, impacting our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. In the tropics, predictability is projected to increase, except in northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Extratropical predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. These changes, combined with increased interannual precipitation variability, present challenges and opportunities for regional water management.

Phong V. V. Le, James T. Randerson, Rebecca Willett, Stephen Wright, Padhraic Smyth, Clément Guilloteau, Antonios Mamalakis, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou