Climate change is expected to significantly impact Central American forests, affecting species composition, forest types, and leading to habitat and biodiversity loss. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of plant functional types (PFTs) in Central America using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data. The study projects PFT suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) using an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modeling methods. Results predict transitions from wet to generalist or dry forest PFTs, latitudinal divergence and connectivity loss for wet-adapted PFTs, and upslope shifts in montane species, increasing the risk of mountaintop extinction. The findings highlight the urgent need for habitat connectivity safeguards through biological corridors and expanded protected areas in transition hotspots.

Lukas Baumbach, Dan L. Warren, Rasoul Yousefpour, Marc Hanewinkel