Changes in hail hazard across Australia: 1979–2021

Hail damage is a leading cause of insured losses in Australia, but changes in this hazard have not been robustly quantified. Here, we provide a continental-scale analysis of changes in hail hazard in Australia. A hail proxy applied to reanalysis data shows that from 1979–2021 annual hail-prone days decreased over much of Australia but increased in some heavily populated areas. For example, the annual number of hail-prone days increased by ~40% around Sydney and Perth, the largest cities on Australia’s east and west coasts, respectively. Changes in atmospheric instability have driven the trends. Radar observations, while covering shorter time spans and a more limited area than the reanalysis, corroborate the broad pattern of results. This study shows consistent hail-frequency trends in radar indicators and atmospheric environments and demonstrates substantial increases in hail frequency in major Australian cities where hail impacts are most significant.

Timothy H. Raupach, Joshua S. Soderholm, Robert A. Warren, Steven C. Sherwood