Challenges of decarbonizing global maritime container shipping toward net-zero emissions

Responsible for the most significant part of the world’s burning of marine fossil fuels and shipping emissions, global maritime container shipping is under decarbonization pressure. This paper develops an integrated framework of bottom-up emission estimation and upscaling pathway analysis (BEEPA) to measure global maritime container shipping emissions from 2015 to 2020, and project possible pathways toward carbon neutrality by designing typical decarbonization scenarios. The result shows that global total seaborne container emissions fluctuated from 2015 to 2020 with a maximum value of 264 Mt, and the average annual energy consumption is 77.7 Mt (heavy fuel oil-equivalent). Container traffic to/from Asian ports generate the largest volumes of shipping emissions, accounting for about 55% of the global total. Under the most stringent scenario, container shipping emissions peak in 2025 and then quickly decline to 19.6 Mt in 2050, nearing the International Maritime Organization’s goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2040 and beyond. Energy efficiency improvements contribute to emission reduction in the near term, but the trade growth impact still predominates in the shipping emission increase. With the maturity of infrastructural development and technological innovation, the energy transition would be the largest contributor emission reductions over the medium to long term.

Bo Lu, Xi Ming, Hongman Lu, Deyang Chen, Hongbo Duan