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Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018

Political Science

Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018

F. Gündem

This study, conducted by Fırat Gündem, delves into the surprising electoral success of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) from 2007-2018, even in challenging economic climates. By applying Economic Voting Theory and Center-Periphery theory, it uncovers how factors like religious conservatism and ethnicity play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior over economic conditions.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigates the factors behind the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) continued electoral success in Turkey from 2007-2018, even amidst economic downturns. Using a comparative method combining Economic Voting Theory (EVT) and Center-Periphery (C-P) theory, and an original dataset encompassing socioeconomic factors and spatial data, the study finds that C-P factors (religious conservatism and ethnicity) are stronger predictors of AKP electoral performance than national or local economic conditions. The results reveal distinct spatial regimes based on ethnic identity, with no spatial spillovers in voting behavior.
Publisher
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
Published On
Mar 14, 2023
Authors
Fırat Gündem
Tags
Justice and Development Party
electoral success
Turkey
economic downturn
C-P theory
voting behavior
ethnic identity
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