This study characterizes low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa, identifying the cost-optimal electricity generation mix under various socio-environmental constraints and carbon targets. It finds substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but significant socio-environmental conflicts affecting about 40% of planned hydropower projects. Land and freshwater protections increase wind, solar, and battery capacity while reducing hydropower. While carbon targets favor hydropower, the cost-competitively selected amount is limited (at most 45% of planned capacity, 25% under protections). Achieving both carbon and socio-environmental goals increases system costs by 3–6%. Without protections, new hydropower's environmental and social impacts could be substantial.

Grace C. Wu, Ranjit Deshmukh, Anne Trainor, Anagha Uppal, A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Carlos Baez, Erik Martin, Jonathan Higgins, Ana Mileva, Kudakwashe Ndhlukula