Avoidable heat-related mortality in China during the 21st century

This study assessed future avoidable heat-related deaths in China by considering emission mitigation and population changes, using mortality records from 195 sites and 11 CMIP6 model simulations. Without human-induced climate change, heat-related mortality would drop significantly (48–72%). Reducing emissions could avoid 15,576–87,612 heat-related deaths annually. Temperature changes primarily influence heat-related deaths, while population changes are more influential in Central and South China. Mitigation efforts alongside adjustments to population structure and distribution are recommended, particularly given that abatement effects won't be immediate. Healthcare infrastructure improvements are urgently needed, especially in Northwest and South China.

Guwei Zhang, Zhaobin Sun, Ling Han, Vedaste lyakaremye, Zhiqi Xu, Shiguang Miao, Shilu Tong