Artificial Intelligence and Employment: New Cross-Country Evidence

Recent years have seen impressive advances in artificial intelligence (AI), raising concerns about impacts on the labor market. This paper examines links between AI and employment in a cross-country context by adapting the Felten, Raj, and Seamans AI occupational impact measure—capturing the degree to which occupations rely on abilities where AI has progressed—and extending it to 23 OECD countries. Overall, there is no clear relationship between AI exposure and employment growth. However, in occupations with high computer use, greater exposure to AI is associated with higher employment growth. There is suggestive evidence of a negative relationship between AI exposure and growth in average hours worked in occupations where computer use is low. One possible explanation is that partial automation by AI increases productivity directly and by shifting occupational task composition toward higher value-added tasks. This productivity effect appears to outweigh displacement for workers with stronger digital skills who can more effectively use AI and transition to non-automatable tasks; the opposite may hold for workers with poorer digital skills.

Alexandre Georgieff, Raphaela Hyee