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Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries

Economics

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries

D. Furceri, S. A. Hannan, et al.

This compelling research conducted by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose reveals that increases in import tariffs lead to significant and lasting declines in output growth. Concerns regarding the economic repercussions of ongoing trade wars are thus substantiated.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963-2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.
Publisher
Journal of Policy Modeling
Published On
Apr 12, 2020
Authors
Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew K. Rose
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
Tags
import tariffs
output growth
trade war
macroeconomic data
economic impact
global economy
empirical evidence

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