Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US

This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought recovery probabilities in the western US. Using monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data from observations and climate models, the researchers find that drought recovery probability is significantly lower in recent decades (2000-2021) compared to the historical record (1901-1980). At least one-third of this reduction is attributed to anthropogenic climate change, primarily due to increased evaporative demand in non-winter months. Climate models project continued reduced recovery probabilities, implying longer drought durations and significant implications for water management and drought planning.

Emily L. Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Katherine C. Hegewisch, A. Park Williams