Analysis of socio-economic vulnerability to transport disruptions in the European Union

This research investigates the multi-dimensional nature of transport vulnerability among socio-economic groups across the European Union (EU), focusing on their exposure and adaptability to transport disruptive events. The study establishes a comprehensive framework for measuring transport vulnerability through three core pillars: affordability, adaptability, and system resilience, which are synthesized into a Vulnerability Structural Index, a composite country-level score reflecting exposure to future disruptions. Utilizing a macro-level analysis of pan-European datasets, the study employs the COVID-19 pandemic as a universal stress test to evaluate these dimensions. As a first step in interpreting these impacts, the analysis maps the spatial distribution of socio-economic deprivation, revealing a clear divide between Western and Eastern Europe: deprivation is predominantly urban in Western and largely rural in Eastern Europe. Building on the spatial analysis, the results identify a significant resilience gap between EU member states, characterized by persistent vulnerability hotspots primarily located in Southeastern Europe and the Baltics. Populations in these regions face a dual burden: they exhibit the lowest workforce adaptability, while simultaneously being hindered by low transport affordability and public transport systems experiencing a persistent decline in modal share relative to other transport modes following the pandemic. The paper provides a strategic roadmap for policymakers by demonstrating that effective interventions must be calibrated to existing national infrastructure profiles. The analysis offers a context-specific approach to mobility justice, ensuring that policy decisions, ranging from financial subsidies in high-transit regions to structural investments in underdeveloped areas, are aligned with the capabilities of the transport system.