An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the

Index

Abstract

The remaining carbon budget quantifies future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. This study estimates the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) using observational constraints and integrates geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the remaining carbon budget distribution. A median TCRE of 0.44 °C per 1000 GtCO2 is estimated, with a 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020, ranging from 230–670 GtCO2 (67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Socioeconomic uncertainty related to non-CO2 emissions further shifts this median by ±170 GtCO2.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Jan 18, 2021

Authors

H. Damon Matthews, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Joeri Rogelj, Christopher J. Smith, Andrew H. MacDougall, Karsten Haustein, Nadine Mengis, Sebastian Sippel, Piers M. Forster, Reto Knutti

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