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An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Earth Sciences

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

H. D. Matthews, K. B. Tokarska, et al.

Explore the future of our planet! This groundbreaking study conducted by H. Damon Matthews and colleagues estimates the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions, revealing critical insights into the remaining carbon budget necessary to limit global warming. With a median TCRE of 0.44 °C per 1000 GtCO2, the research highlights both geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties that could affect our climate goals.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
The remaining carbon budget quantifies future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. This study estimates the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) using observational constraints and integrates geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the remaining carbon budget distribution. A median TCRE of 0.44 °C per 1000 GtCO2 is estimated, with a 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020, ranging from 230–670 GtCO2 (67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Socioeconomic uncertainty related to non-CO2 emissions further shifts this median by ±170 GtCO2.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Jan 18, 2021
Authors
H. Damon Matthews, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Joeri Rogelj, Christopher J. Smith, Andrew H. MacDougall, Karsten Haustein, Nadine Mengis, Sebastian Sippel, Piers M. Forster, Reto Knutti
Tags
carbon budget
CO2 emissions
climate response
global warming
socioeconomic uncertainties
geophysical uncertainties
temperature rise

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