To limit global warming to well below 2°C, rapid fossil fuel phase-out is crucial. This paper uses modeling to explore redistributing remaining fossil fuel production towards developing countries. The findings suggest that redistribution faces significant economic disincentives, offers limited economic benefits for developing nations due to long timeframes and increased import costs, and is offset by shrinking fossil fuel markets. While the economic case for redistribution is weak, equity principles should guide supply-side policies and development assistance.

Steve Pye, Siân Bradley, Nick Hughes, James Price, Daniel Welsby, Paul Ekins