Future changes in solar radiation and rising temperatures will likely reduce global solar photovoltaic potential, but advancing photovoltaic technologies could counteract these effects. We investigate the potential of photovoltaic to satisfy energy demands given climate change and technological development. We find that conventional photovoltaic will require 0.5 to 1.2% of global land area to meet projected energy demands by 2085 without accounting for climate change effects. When considering climate impacts, this requirement increases to 0.7–1.5% of the global land area. However, utilising advanced photovoltaic technologies can reduce this area to 0.3–1.2%, effectively mitigating climate impacts. Regional climate change impacts vary substantially, resulting in photovoltaic potential decreases of up to 3% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and by up to 8% in South Asia. Our results suggest that technology-driven increases in future global photovoltaic energy production can more than compensate for the climate related reductions.

Ankita Saxena, Calum Brown, Almut Arneth, Mark Rounsevell