Advanced photovoltaic technology can reduce land requirements and climate impact on energy generation

Future changes in solar radiation and rising temperatures are likely to reduce global solar photovoltaic (PV) potential, but advancing PV technologies could offset these effects. We assess whether PV can satisfy future energy demands under climate change and with technological development. Without climate change, conventional silicon (Si) PV would require about 0.5–1.2% of global land area to meet projected energy demands by 2085; accounting for climate impacts raises this to 0.7–1.5%. Deploying advanced PV technologies reduces the land requirement to about 0.3–1.2%, effectively mitigating climate impacts. Regional climate effects vary, with PV potential decreases up to 3% in Latin America and the Caribbean and up to 8% in South Asia. Overall, technology-driven increases in PV energy production can more than compensate for climate-related reductions.

Ankita Saxena, Calum Brown, Almut Arneth, Mark Rounsevell