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A framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies

Economics

A framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies

S. G. Baratsas, A. M. Niziolek, et al.

Discover the groundbreaking Energy Price Index (EPIC) framework, developed by a team of researchers from Texas A&M University, that accurately predicts average energy prices for consumers in the U.S. This innovative approach assesses the interplay between energy demand and pricing over a 174-month analysis, shedding light on the effects of crude oil taxes and renewable energy subsidies on government revenues.

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Abstract
This paper introduces a predictive framework, the Energy Price Index (EPIC), to calculate the average price of energy for end-use consumers in the United States. EPIC considers the total demand of energy products directed to end-use sectors and the price of each product. A rolling horizon predictive methodology, rigorously tested over 174 months, estimates future energy demands. The framework's effectiveness is demonstrated by analyzing the impacts of crude oil taxes and renewable energy subsidies on energy prices and government revenue.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Jan 04, 2021
Authors
Stefanos G. Baratsas, Alexander M. Niziolek, Onur Onel, Logan R. Matthews, Christodoulos A. Floudas, Detlef R. Hallermann, Sorin M. Sorescu, Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
Tags
Energy Price Index
predictive framework
energy pricing
renewable energy
government revenue
energy demand
crude oil taxes

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