Medicine and Health

A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries

F. Sera, B. Armstrong, et al.

Conflicting evidence on weather's influence on COVID-19 has emerged from a study analyzing 409 cities across 26 countries. Researchers discovered that government interventions played a significant role in transmission rates, overshadowing the impact of temperature changes. Join Francesco Sera and his esteemed colleagues as they unravel the real drivers behind COVID-19 spread.

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Playback language: English

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Abstract

Conflicting evidence exists on weather's influence on COVID-19 transmission. This study analyzed 409 cities across 26 countries, revealing a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re), with a decrease of 0.087 for a 10°C increase. Early interventions significantly impacted Re, decreasing it more than temperature. Government interventions were six times more influential than temperature in explaining Re variation. The study concludes that population behavior and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission than meteorological conditions.

Publisher

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS

Published On

Oct 13, 2021

Authors

Francesco Sera, Ben Armstrong, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin, Kathleen O'Reilly, Rosa von Borries, Rochelle Schneider, Dominic Royé, Masahiro Hashizume, Mathilde Pascal, Aurelio Tobias, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonio Gasparrini, Rachel Lowe

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