XGBoost model for electrocaloric temperature change prediction in ceramics

An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model is built to predict the electrocaloric (EC) temperature change of a ceramic based on its composition (encoded by Magpie elemental properties), dielectric constant, Curie temperature, and characterization conditions. A dataset of 97 EC ceramics is assembled from the experimental literature. By sampling data from clusters in the feature space, the model can achieve a coefficient of determination of 0.77 and a root mean square error of 0.38 K for the test data. Feature analysis shows that the model captures known physics for effective EC materials. The Magpie features help the model to distinguish between materials, with the elemental electronegativities and ionic charges identified as key features. The model is applied to 66 ferroelectrics whose EC performance has not been characterized. Lead-free candidates with a predicted EC temperature change above 2 K at room temperature and 100 kV/cm are identified.