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West coast India's rainfall is becoming more convective

Earth Sciences

West coast India's rainfall is becoming more convective

A. V. Sreenath, S. Abhilash, et al.

This research, conducted by A. V. Sreenath, S. Abhilash, P. Vijaykumar, and B. E. Mapes, explores a significant shift in the rainfall patterns on India's west coast, suggesting a trend towards more convective storm systems. Through detailed analysis of reanalysis data, satellite observations, and balloon soundings, the study reveals deepening convection that could have important implications for understanding regional climate changes.... show more
Abstract
A disastrous cloudburst and associated floods in Kerala during the 2019 monsoon season raise the hypothesis that rainfall over the west coast of India, much of which is stratiform, may be trending towards being more convective. As a first exploration, we sought statistically significant differences in monthly ERA-5 reanalysis data for the monsoon season between two epochs, 1980–1999 and 2000–2019. Results suggest a more convective (deeper, ice-rich) cloud population in recent decades, with patterns illustrated in ERA-5 spatial maps. Deepening of convection, above and beyond its trend in amount, is also indicated by the steeper regression slope of outgoing longwave radiation trends against precipitation than that exhibited in interannual variability. Our reanalysis results are strengthened by related trends manifested in more direct observations from satellite and gauge-based rainfall and a CAPE index from balloon soundings data.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
May 12, 2022
Authors
A. V. Sreenath, S. Abhilash, P. Vijaykumar, B. E. Mapes
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00258-2
Tags
Kerala floods
cloudburst
rainfall patterns
convective activity
climate change
CAPE index
OLR trends

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