This study investigates the water challenge faced by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in its ambition to become a world-class megalopolis. Using an inter-city input-output model, the study reveals a significant gap between the region's water needs and its available resources. While water conservation measures like improving water use efficiency and reducing agricultural water use offer modest improvements, the water required for urban development still surpasses availability. The study highlights the crucial role of agricultural water use reduction in Hebei through crop system replacement and proposes an alternative: adjusting the megalopolis boundary by excluding parts of Hebei. The findings offer insights into the impact of water scarcity on urban development, providing valuable references for other water-stressed regions.

Zhuoying Zhang, Minjun Shi, Kevin Z. Chen, Hong Yang, Shouyang Wang