Agriculture

Using insurance data to quantify the multidimensional impacts of warming temperatures on yield risk

E. D. Perry, J. Yu, et al.

This paper by Edward D. Perry, Jisang Yu, and Jesse Tack delves into how rising temperatures impact crop yield risk, revealing a concerning correlation between warmer climates and increased yield risk for corn and soybeans. With a significant rise in crop insurance costs on the horizon, this research is crucial for understanding future agricultural challenges.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of warming temperatures on crop yield risk using insurance data. The study leverages a unique dataset of insurance-based yield risk measures for U.S. corn and soybeans from 1989-2014. Results indicate that yield risk increases with warmer temperatures, with a 1°C increase associated with approximately 32% and 11% yield risk increases for corn and soybeans, respectively. Analysis of cause-of-loss information reveals that increased losses are primarily due to drought, with a smaller contribution from heat stress. The findings suggest that warming temperatures will increase crop insurance costs for producers.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Sep 11, 2020

Authors

Edward D. Perry, Jisang Yu, Jesse Tack

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