This study estimated the warm season ozone climate penalty in the Denver Metro North Front Range (DMNFR) region, its impact on NAAQS attainment, and its implications for health equity. Using spatio-temporal land-use regression models, the ozone climate penalty (difference between 2010s concentrations and concentrations predicted with 1950s climate) was found to be 0.5–1.0 ppb for 8-h max ozone concentrations. The penalty was higher around urban centers and later in summer, and disproportionately affected Hispanic/Latino residents, children in poverty, and those with asthma, diabetes, or poor health. This penalty delayed attainment of the 2008 and 2015 ozone standards by approximately 2 years each.

James L. Crooks, Rachel Licker, Adrienne L. Hollis, Brenda Ekwurzel