The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

The nutrition transition is transforming food systems globally, impacting public health and the environment. This study projects the continuation of this transition until 2050, forecasting a significant increase in overweight and obese individuals, while underweight prevalence decreases relatively but stagnates in absolute numbers. Dietary shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories are anticipated, alongside insufficient increases in vegetable, fruit, and nut consumption. The study uses a comprehensive open-source model and dataset to analyze the interlinked symptoms of the nutrition transition, including food waste and environmental pressures. Achieving food security, healthy diets, and environmental sustainability requires a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition, focusing on reducing food waste, animal-source food consumption, and overweight prevalence.

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Eleonora Martinelli, Antonia Stenstad, Prajal Pradhan, Sabine Gabrysch, Abhijeet Mishra, Isabelle Weindl, Chantal Le Mouël, Susanne Rolinski, Lavinia Baumstark, Xiaoxi Wang, Jillian L. Waid, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp