Health and Fitness

The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

E. Bertuzzo, L. Mari, et al.

This research by Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Stefano Miccoli, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, and Andrea Rinaldo employs a spatially explicit model to dissect the nuances of COVID-19 transmission in Italy. It highlights the critical role of managing inapparent infections and the ramifications of lockdown relaxations, timing critical interventions to avert resurgence.

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Abstract

This paper uses a spatially explicit model to analyze the COVID-19 spread in Italy, considering inapparent infections and the impact of lockdown relaxation. A 40% increase in transmission could lead to a rebound in infections. The study estimates that isolating ~5.5% of exposed and highly infectious individuals daily is necessary to prevent resurgence. An ex-post assessment, using data available after the initial analysis, estimates the actual transmission after lockdown weakening.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Aug 26, 2020

Authors

Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Damiano Pasetto, Stefano Miccoli, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo

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