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The 1995–2018 global evolution of the network of amicable and hostile relations among nation-states

Political Science

The 1995–2018 global evolution of the network of amicable and hostile relations among nation-states

O. Askarisichani, A. K. Singh, et al.

This research, conducted by Omid Askarisichani, Ambuj K. Singh, Francesco Bullo, and Noah E. Friedkin, delves into the intricate evolution of international relationships from 1995 to 2018. Utilizing the ICEWS dataset, the authors uncover how positive and negative interactions between countries conform to Structural Balance Theory, while also introducing a new probabilistic micro-dynamic model that traces shifts in global opinions.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This paper investigates the evolution of positive and negative relationships among countries from 1995 to 2018 using the ICEWS dataset. The study examines the alignment of Structural Balance Theory with the observed network evolution and proposes a probabilistic micro-dynamic model for changes in international appraisals. The authors find that the trajectory of transition probabilities stabilizes over time, and the network structure exhibits core-periphery characteristics.
Publisher
Communications Physics
Published On
Jul 28, 2020
Authors
Omid Askarisichani, Ambuj K. Singh, Francesco Bullo, Noah E. Friedkin
Tags
international relations
Structural Balance Theory
network evolution
probabilistic model
ICEWS dataset
core-periphery structure
transition probabilities

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