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Abstract
This paper investigates the evolution of positive and negative relationships among countries from 1995 to 2018 using the ICEWS dataset. The study examines the alignment of Structural Balance Theory with the observed network evolution and proposes a probabilistic micro-dynamic model for changes in international appraisals. The authors find that the trajectory of transition probabilities stabilizes over time, and the network structure exhibits core-periphery characteristics.
Publisher
Communications Physics
Published On
Jul 28, 2020
Authors
Omid Askarisichani, Ambuj K. Singh, Francesco Bullo, Noah E. Friedkin
Tags
international relations
Structural Balance Theory
network evolution
probabilistic model
ICEWS dataset
core-periphery structure
transition probabilities

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