Temporal Complementarity Analysis of Wind and Solar Power Potential for Distributed Hybrid Electric Generation in Chile

We evaluate the temporal complementarity in daily averages between wind and solar power potential in Chile using Spearman's correlation coefficient. We used hourly wind speed and solar radiation data for 176 geographic points from 2004 to 2016. The results allow us to identify four zones: Zone A1 on the coast and in the valleys in the north of Chile between latitudes 18° S and 36° S, with moderate positive correlation; Zone A2 in the north Andes between latitudes 25° S and 33° S, with weak negative correlation; Zone B in the center-south part of the country between latitudes 36° S and 51° S with moderate negative correlation; and Zone C in the south, between latitudes 51° S and 55° S with null or weak positive correlation. On the one hand, the interannual analysis shows that Zone A1 keeps uniform correlation values with negative asymmetry, i.e., higher correlation values. On the other hand, there is positive asymmetry in most of the years in Zone A2, i.e., lower (or negative) values of correlation. Zone B shows an interannual oscillation of the median correlation, while Zone C shows a larger dispersion in the interannual results. Significance analysis shows that 163 out of the 176 points are statistically significant, while Zones A1, A2, and B have significant correlations, with Zone C being marginally significant. The results obtained are relevant information for further studies on the location of hybrid generation facilities. We expect our methodology to be instrumental in Chile's energetic transition to a 100% renewable generation matrix.

José Luis Muñoz-Pincheira, Lautaro Salazar, Felipe Sanhueza, Armin Lüer-Villagra