Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, the mechanisms behind this have been quantified using both empirical data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylogenetic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clades 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylogenomic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Phillipe Lemey, Lu Dong, Tong Mu, R. Alex Wiebe, Fengyi Guo, Nidia Sequeira Trovão, Sang Moo Park, Nicola Lewis, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Sumali Bajaj, Yachang Cheng, Luojun Yang, Yuki Haba, Bingying Li, Guogang Zhang, Oliver G. Pybus, Huaiyu Tian, Bryan Grenfell