Irrigated wheat production is critical for food security in the Indus basin. Changing climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to increase wheat demand and reduce irrigation water availability. Therefore, adaptation of irrigated wheat production is essential to achieve the interlinked Sustainable Development Goals for both water and food security. Here, we developed a spatial adaptation pathways methodology that integrates water and food objectives under future climate change and population growth. The results show that strategic combinations between production intensification, laser land leveling, and targeted expansion of irrigated areas can ensure wheat production increases and irrigation water savings in the short term. However, no adaptation pathways can ensure long-term wheat production within the existing irrigation water budget under rapid population growth. Adaptation planning for the Sustainable Development Goals in the Indus basin must therefore address both climatic and population changes, and anticipate that current food production practices may be unsustainable.

Wouter Julius Smolenaars, Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer, Bregje van der Bolt, Muhammad Khalid Jamil, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, Hester Biemans