Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

The California Current System (CCS) is vulnerable to ocean acidification due to upwelling of carbon-enriched waters. This study uses retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict surface pH anomalies in the CCS. The forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance, with potential for skillful prediction up to five years. Skillful predictions stem from initializing dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies, which are then transported into the CCS. The results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS and to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems.

Riley X. Brady, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Matthew C. Long, Keith Lindsay