Risk factors and missing persons: advancing an understanding of ‘risk’

This study seeks to advance an understanding of ‘risk’ for persons going missing—a phenomenon also known as missingness. There is a need to clarify terms used to describe correlations or statistical associations between variables that are identified as risk factors for missing person incidents to understand the mechanisms influencing this phenomenon. Without such research, policies and preventative strategies cannot be adequately offered to begin to reduce missingness. To do so, a review is first provided of the current risk factors identified internationally for missing persons. Then, the Kraemer and colleagues (Arch Gen Psychiatry 54:337–343, 1997; Kraemer et al., Am J Psychiatry 158:848–856, 2001) risk factor classification system and MacArthur framework are applied to the risk factors to identify the ways in which these may be overlapping, proxy, mediating, and/or moderating factors. This clarification on risk terminology attempts to offer a common language for communicating about risk factors associated with missing persons. Suggestions are then provided for how these factors may overlap and/or work together to form risk pathways. The application of this framework highlights that ‘going missing’ may have multiple risk pathways that transgress the current risk factor categorical boundaries. The article then concludes that consistent use of terms and additional research on risk factors will enhance investigations of missing persons and understandings of low- and high-risk groups.

Lorna Ferguson