Projecting contributions of marine protected areas to rebuild fish stocks under climate change

This study investigates the potential of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) to rebuild overexploited fish stocks under climate change. Using a linked climate-fish-fishing model, simulations were conducted on 231 exploited fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast Atlantic. Results indicate that average individual stock biomass is projected to decrease by 5–15% per degree Celsius atmospheric warming. However, 30% no-take MPA coverage combined with conservation-focused fisheries management can offset negative impacts under 2.6–2.9 °C global warming. Potential catches increase when overexploited stocks are partially protected due to biomass spillover. The study concludes that no-take MPAs, coupled with reduced fishing intensity, can aid in rebuilding overexploited fish biomass and benefit fisheries under projected climate change.

William W. L. Cheung, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Sarah M. Roberts