Projecting contributions of marine protected areas to rebuild fish stocks under climate change

No-take marine protected areas (MPAs) are a key tool for conserving marine biodiversity and ecosystem services and can aid climate adaptation for exploited fish stocks. Many global fish stocks are overfished and rebuilding plans are being developed. Using a linked climate–fish–fisheries model, the study simulates effects of no-take MPAs on biomass and potential catches of 231 exploited fish and invertebrate species (739 stock units) in eight Northeast Atlantic ecoregions under climate change. Simulations span fishing levels, MPA coverage, and global warming levels, and account for displaced fishing around MPAs. Individual stock biomass is projected to decrease by 5–15% per °C atmospheric warming. Protecting 30% of the distribution of over-exploited stocks, combined with conservation-focused fisheries management, is projected to offset negative warming impacts on biomass under 2.6–2.9 °C warming. Potential catches of over-exploited stocks increase due to spillover from MPAs. Findings highlight that no-take MPAs, combined with reduced fishing intensity, can help rebuild over-exploited biomass and benefit fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic under 21st-century climate change.