Predicting radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula success with machine learning

After creation of a new arteriovenous fistula (AVF), assessment of readiness for use is an important clinical task. Accurate prediction of successful use is challenging, and augmentation of the physical exam with ultrasound has become routine. Herein, we propose a point-of-care tool based on machine learning to enhance prediction of successful unassisted radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) use. Our analysis includes pooled patient-level data from 704 patients undergoing new radiocephalic AVF creation, eligible for hemodialysis, and enrolled in the 2014–2019 international multicenter PATENCY-1 or PATENCY-2 randomized controlled trials. The primary outcome being predicted is successful unassisted AVF use within 1-year, defined as 2-needle cannulation for hemodialysis for ≥90 days without preceding intervention. Logistic, penalized logistic (lasso and elastic net), decision tree, random forest, and boosted tree classification models were built with a training, tuning, and testing paradigm using a combination of baseline clinical characteristics and 4–6 week ultrasound parameters. Performance assessment includes receiver operating characteristic curves, precision-recall curves, calibration plots, and decision curves. All modeling approaches except the decision tree have similar discrimination performance and comparable net-benefit (area under the ROC curve 0.78–0.81, accuracy 69.1–73.6%). Model performance is superior to Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative and University of Alabama at Birmingham ultrasound threshold criteria. The lasso model is presented as the final model due to its parsimony, retaining only 3 covariates: larger outflow vein diameter, higher flow volume, and absence of >50% luminal stenosis. A point-of-care online calculator is deployed to facilitate AVF assessment in the clinic.