Warmer ocean conditions could significantly impact future ice loss from Antarctica by thinning and reducing the buttressing of ice shelves. This study uses an ice sheet model and ensemble ocean-circulation model data to quantify the impact of a cold-to-warm ocean regime shift in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelf cavities. The results show that this transition leads to destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations, greatly accelerating ice loss and creating conditions similar to the present-day Amundsen Sea sector.

Emily A. Hill, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David M. Chandler