This study uses a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France to explore scenarios of school reopening. The researchers found that reopening schools after lockdown could increase COVID-19 cases, but protocols exist to manage the epidemic. Reopening pre-schools and primary schools might lead to high ICU bed occupancy if other school levels remain closed or reopen later. Immediate reopening of all school levels might overwhelm the ICU system. Large-scale testing and tracing are necessary to control the epidemic. An ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening, limited attendance, and preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.

Laura Di Domenico, Giulia Pullano, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Vittoria Colizza