Importance of social inequalities to contact patterns, vaccine uptake, and epidemic dynamics

Individuals' socio-demographic and economic characteristics crucially shape the spread of an epidemic by determining exposure levels and disease severity. While this interplay is widely recognised, traditional epidemic models often overlook such factors beyond age. This study examines two behavioural aspects relevant to epidemics—contact patterns and vaccination uptake—using survey data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary (MASZK study). We identify the dimensions along which individuals differ most in contacts and vaccination uptake and find that higher socio-economic groups report more contacts and higher vaccination uptake than disadvantaged groups. We then propose a data-driven epidemiological model that incorporates these behavioural differences and apply it to analyse Hungary’s fourth COVID-19 wave. The framework bridges individual characteristics and epidemic spread, improving understanding of disease dynamics and informing targeted public health strategies.

Adriana Manna, Júlia Koltai, Márton Karsai