This paper systematically assesses the long-run effectiveness of China's "welfare-to-work" policy on poverty reduction. Using county-level data from 2000 to 2019 and sustainable development theory, a county-relative poverty evaluation system was constructed. The double difference method was employed to evaluate the policy's effect and test its action mechanism. Findings indicate a significant, inverted U-shaped poverty reduction effect, with achievements in employment stability, income assurance, skill enhancement, and economic support. The policy boosts poverty reduction through infrastructure construction, fiscal intervention, and financial tools, although the effect of financial tools varies regionally. Differences in poverty alleviation effects were observed based on sustainable development levels, with higher development levels showing stronger driving effects.

Feng Lan, Weichao Xu, Weizeng Sun, Xiaonan Zhao