Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic carbon emissions over the past 50 years, largely due to stimulated tree growth. Models predict this uptake will continue, but faster growth may shorten tree lifespans, leading to increased mortality and neutralizing carbon gains. This study shows a near-universal growth-lifespan trade-off across species and climates, directly linking faster growth to reduced lifespan. This will inevitably lead to increased mortality, offsetting growth-stimulated carbon uptake. Simulations confirm this, suggesting current Earth system model projections are too optimistic and highlight the urgent need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

R. J. W. Brienen, L. Caldwell, L. Duchesne, S. Voelker, J. Barichivich, M. Baliva, G. Ceccantini, A. Di Filippo, S. Helama, G. M. Locosselli, L. Lopez, G. Piovesan, J. Schöngart, R. Villalba, E. Gloor