The Amazon forest, a crucial element of the Earth's system, is vulnerable to regime shifts from rainforest to savanna due to human activities and climate change. This research utilizes the fire-enabled Potsdam Earth Model to investigate the interplay of fire, climate, and land-use change in Amazon forest recovery after complete deforestation. The study reveals that fire significantly hinders regrowth across 56–82% of the potential forest area, depending on atmospheric CO2 levels, leading to a stable grassland state. This highlights the critical role of fire dynamics in future assessments of climate and land-use impacts on the Amazon.

Markus Drüke, Boris Sakschewski, Werner von Bloh, Maik Billing, Wolfgang Lucht, Kirsten Thonicke