This study examines the increasing frequency and northward expansion of compound hot and dry summers (CHDs) in Europe. Using reanalysis data (2001–2022) and model data at three global warming levels (+1.2 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C), the research finds a significant increase in CHD frequency under warming scenarios, with probabilities rising up to 5–6 times from +2 °C to +3 °C. A northward shift in CHD climatology is also projected under +3 °C warming, with hot and dry conditions extending to the Baltic coast, Finland, and Scandinavia.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Jul 31, 2024
Authors
Elizaveta Felsche, Andrea Böhnisch, Benjamin Poschlod, Ralf Ludwig
Tags
compound hot and dry summers
Europe
climate change
global warming
northward expansion
reanalysis data
historical trends
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