Earth Sciences

European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards

E. Felsche, A. Böhnisch, et al.

This compelling study reveals the alarming rise in compound hot and dry summers (CHDs) across Europe, highlighting a dramatic northward shift expected under future warming scenarios. Conducted by Elizaveta Felsche and colleagues, it shows the potential for CHD conditions to reach the Baltic coast, Finland, and beyond as global temperatures rise.

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Abstract

This study examines the increasing frequency and northward expansion of compound hot and dry summers (CHDs) in Europe. Using reanalysis data (2001–2022) and model data at three global warming levels (+1.2 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C), the research finds a significant increase in CHD frequency under warming scenarios, with probabilities rising up to 5–6 times from +2 °C to +3 °C. A northward shift in CHD climatology is also projected under +3 °C warming, with hot and dry conditions extending to the Baltic coast, Finland, and Scandinavia.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Jul 31, 2024

Authors

Elizaveta Felsche, Andrea Böhnisch, Benjamin Poschlod, Ralf Ludwig

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