Enhanced mitigation in nutrient surplus driven by multilateral crop trade patterns

Multilateral crop trade is likely to drive enhancement or mitigation of nutrient surpluses of the trading countries; however, the driving mechanisms are unclear. Here we explore the effects of multilateral crop trade on nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses based on two optimal multilateral crop trade models, a regional nutrient surplus model and crop trade data. Focusing on China and Central Asia, we find that optimal multilateral crop trades are effective to mitigate both nutrient surplus and footprint. Compared to the base year (2018), a single-objective-based crop trade would drive an obvious transition from nitrogen surplus enhancement (1170.5 kt) to mitigation (-705.8 kt over 2030–2034); the phosphorus surplus enhancement would be transferred from 1741.5 to mitigation of -2934 kt. Driven by the bilevel-objective-based crop trade, great mitigations in both nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses are detected, with the projected levels reaching -571 and -2809 kt, respectively. This implies that strengthening optimal multilateral crop trades across the world would facilitate global nutrient management.

Hongwei Lu, Wei Feng, Pengdong Yan, Jiajie Kang, Chunfang Jiang, Qing Yu, Tianci Yao, Yuxuan Xue, Dongzhe Liang, Yiming Yan