Enhanced mitigation in nutrient surplus driven by multilateral crop trade patterns

Multilateral crop trade can either enhance or mitigate nutrient surpluses in trading countries, but the mechanisms are unclear. This study explores the effects of multilateral crop trade on nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses using optimal multilateral crop trade models, a regional nutrient surplus model, and crop trade data, focusing on China and Central Asia. Optimal multilateral crop trades effectively mitigate both nutrient surplus and footprint. Single-objective-based crop trade transitions from nitrogen surplus enhancement to mitigation, and phosphorus surplus enhancement to mitigation. Bilevel-objective-based crop trade shows greater mitigation in both nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses. Strengthening optimal multilateral crop trades globally could facilitate global nutrient management.

Hongwei Lu, Wei Feng, Pengdong Yan, Jiajie Kang, Chunfang Jiang, Qing Yu, Tianci Yao, Yuxuan Xue, Dongzhe Liang, Yiming Yan