Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

This study investigates the evolution of forest resilience in response to climate change using satellite-based vegetation indices and machine learning. Tropical, arid, and temperate forests show a significant decline in resilience, likely due to increased water limitations and climate variability. Boreal forests exhibit divergent patterns, with an average increase in resilience possibly due to warming and CO2 fertilization. These patterns are consistent across managed and intact forests, indicating common large-scale climate drivers. Reduced resilience is linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, suggesting that approximately 23% of intact forests have reached a critical threshold and are experiencing further degradation.

Giovanni Forzieri, Vasilis Dakos, Nate G. McDowell, Alkama Ramdane, Alessandro Cescatti