Distinct brain morphometry patterns revealed by deep learning improve prediction of post-stroke aphasia severity

Background Emerging evidence suggests that post-stroke aphasia severity depends on the integrity of the brain beyond the lesion. While measures of lesion anatomy and brain integrity combine synergistically to explain aphasic symptoms, substantial interindividual variability remains unaccounted. One explanatory factor may be the spatial distribution of morphometry beyond the lesion (e.g., atrophy), including not just specific brain areas, but distinct three-dimensional patterns. Methods Here, we test whether deep learning with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) on whole brain morphometry (i.e., segmented tissue volumes) and lesion anatomy better predicts chronic stroke individuals with severe aphasia (N = 231) than classical machine learning (Support Vector Machines; SVMs), evaluating whether encoding spatial dependencies identifies uniquely predictive patterns. Results CNNs achieve higher balanced accuracy and F1 scores, even when SVMs are nonlinear or integrate linear or nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Parity only occurs when SVMs access features learned by CNNs. Saliency maps demonstrate that CNNs leverage distributed morphometry patterns, whereas SVMs focus on the area around the lesion. Ensemble clustering of CNN saliencies reveals distinct morphometry patterns unrelated to lesion size, consistent across individuals, and which implicate unique networks associated with different cognitive processes as measured by the wider neuroimaging literature. Individualized predictions depend on both ipsilateral and contralateral features outside the lesion. Conclusions Three-dimensional network distributions of morphometry are directly associated with aphasia severity, underscoring the potential for CNNs to improve outcome prognostication from neuroimaging data, and highlighting the prospective benefits of interrogating spatial dependence at different scales in multivariate feature space.