Computable general equilibrium analysis of neutral carbon trading scheme and revenue recycling impacts on income distribution in China

Utilizing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper critically assesses the potential distortions and efficacy of various revenue-neutral carbon emission trading schemes (ETSs) in China, through government subsidies and value-added tax (VAT) relief strategies aimed at achieving peak carbon emissions before 2030. The analysis reveals that reallocating market revenues to the production sector, either through government subsidies or VAT reductions, can feasibly attain carbon peaking before 2030, with minimal impact on GDP. Notably, both government subsidies and VAT cuts foster output growth in the oil, gas, and ETS-covered sectors. Moreover, directing carbon market revenue toward ETS-covered industries via VAT relief emerges as the most effective approach to reducing income disparities. In contrast, redistributing carbon market revenue to non-ETS-covered industries via VAT relief is found to be the least effective in promoting social equity. The study emphasizes that the reallocation of carbon market revenues to ETS-covered sectors is paramount. This strategy not only regulates the overall energy consumption effectively but also steers the nation towards a more sustainable and optimized energy consumption pattern. In light of these findings, this paper offers detailed insights and tailored policy recommendations, aiming to assist policymakers in striking a balance between environmental goals and economic and social imperatives.