Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions

Explosive volcanic eruptions impact climate, but the influence of climate change on stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unstudied. This research combines an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to demonstrate that stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to present conditions due to tropopause height rise. Conversely, radiative forcing, stratospheric warming, and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions will intensify by 30%, 52%, and 15%, respectively, due to aerosol size decrease and increased eruptive column height. Understanding changes in eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is crucial for accurately assessing future climate responses to eruptions.

Thomas J. Aubry, John Staunton-Sykes, Lauren R. Marshall, Jim Haywood, Nathan Luke Abraham, Anja Schmidt